For a border poll to succeed, three groups must support change. They are less likely to do so now.
The headlines suggest that Sinn Féin’s victory equals inevitable Irish unity. But the ‘historic’ and ‘seismic’ results of last Thursday’s Assembly election make Irish unity even more unlikely than it already was.
For a unity referendum to pass, three broad groups must support change.
1. Northern nationalists
Despite their name, a large section of nationalism has always prioritized equality in Northern Ireland over Irish unity. Now, with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister, they will see themselves reflected in the institutions of Northern Ireland to an unprecedented degree. Sinn Féin also has the Alliance Party to help constrain unionist excesses. The unionist veto – always the best argument for unity – is not what it once was. So why get rid of Northern Ireland when you are running it?
2. Voters in the Republic of Ireland
They must vote for unity too. In the South, there is a well-known ambivalence about Irish unity – an historical responsibility to pursue it on the one hand, and on the other, a contentment that the 26 counties get along just fine on their own. Now Southerners will look North and see a Sinn Féin First Minister, weakening unionism, and a growing moderate centre. They may feel much less urgency to ‘save’ their co-nationals in the North by removing the border.
3. The non-aligned in the North
Then there are the non-aligned Alliance and Green-types who will decide a unity referendum in the North. Before this election, it could be assumed that most of them would be ‘pro-Union’ in a referendum – perhaps better put as ‘pro-Northern Ireland’ or ‘pro-status quo’. This is surely beyond doubt now. Their Northern Ireland – diverse, progressive, and uninterested in orange-green politics – is finally visible in the political institutions. Why would non-aligned voters vote all that away by choosing the uncertainties of Irish unity?
Aside from the election results, much of what fueled the debate on Irish unity since 2016 no longer applies. A hard border in Ireland has been avoided thanks to the Protocol – and the Protocol may even give the North an advantage over GB and the Republic. The DUP-Tory link-up, loathed by so many, is gone. And socially progressive legislation – impossible at Stormont – was passed at Westminster. Even the Conservative government won’t be around forever.
First, we need an Executive of course. But if we get that, Northern Ireland could become what many hoped it would through the 1998 Agreement: functioning, with a shared north Irish identity, technically in the UK but with minimal overt trappings of Britishness. We could – happily, if you ask me – have a more boring political future than the headlines suggest.
David Mitchell 